Prediction Markets Forum: SBC to Address Regulatory Challenges in Lisbon

The global gaming landscape is witnessing a significant shift as prediction markets move from the fringes to the center of industry discussions. Often viewed as a bridge between traditional betting and financial instruments, these markets allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events. However, the speed of their evolution has left regulators scrambling to define their legal status. To address these pressing issues, SBC has announced the launch of the Global Prediction Markets Forum, a specialized event dedicated to the sector's unique challenges.

Scheduled for Thursday, October 1, the forum will take place at the Myriad Hotel in Lisbon, Portugal. As a standalone event held alongside the larger SBC Summit 2026, it serves as a critical meeting point for operators, legal experts, and technology providers. The high level of interest is reflected in the standalone ticket price of €399, which includes access to the full day of programming and a copy of the SBC Insights Prediction Market Report 2026. The goal is to move beyond the hype and provide actionable insights for businesses entering this space.

Numbers and facts

The agenda features several high-profile sessions with influential industry voices. The panel Regulating futures: bridging the gap between the US and Europe will include Andrew Lyman, Gambling Commissioner and Executive Director for the Government of Gibraltar, and Charles Mizzi, CEO of the Malta Gaming Authority (MGA). They will be joined by experts such as Zach Doctor, Co-Founder & CEO of WagerWire, to assess the divided landscape where some jurisdictions choose to block while others seek to license these markets.

Technological hurdles are also a major focus. In the session Time to market, CEOs like Andrew Gonzalez of ParlayX and Amit Mahensaria of Pred.app will evaluate the infrastructure needed for efficient and compliant launches. Rasmus Sojmark, the founder of SBC, emphasized the necessity of this dialogue:

"Prediction markets have quickly become one of the biggest talking points in the industry, but as with any sector moving at this pace, the opportunities come with a lot of questions. For operators considering entering the space, the question is how to do so effectively, safely and compliantly. That is the purpose of this forum."

Background

At the heart of the industry's debate is the legal definition of prediction markets. The session titled The legal conundrum: are prediction markets gambling? will see experts like Matt Kane from Betr and Steve Humenik from Crypto.com debate whether event contracts should be classified as gambling or financial trading. This distinction carries heavy implications for taxation, licensing requirements, and consumer protection standards. The forum will also look at the future of the sector, exploring whether prediction markets can thrive alongside traditional sportsbooks or if they are destined to remain a specialized niche.

Industry veterans John Aristotle Phillips of PredictIt and Joey Levy of Betr will share lessons learned from other sectors like poker and daily fantasy sports. As prediction markets gain mainstream attention through strategic media partnerships, the industry must decide on the merits of peer-to-peer versus fixed-odds models. The outcome of these discussions in Lisbon could set the tone for how the sector is regulated across Europe in the coming years.

Why it matters for German players

For players in Germany, the rise of prediction markets presents a regulatory challenge. The Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) is notoriously strict, primarily focusing on sports betting and virtual slots. Currently, prediction markets—especially those involving political or non-sporting events—do not fit easily into the existing German licensing framework. This means that many popular global platforms operating in this space do not hold a license from the GGL (Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder).

German consumers should be aware that playing on unlicensed platforms means they are not protected by national safety measures. This includes the LUGAS central monitoring system, which enforces the €1,000 monthly deposit limit, and the OASIS player blocking system. Until the GGL explicitly includes prediction markets in its whitelist, German residents are advised to stick to licensed operators to ensure their funds and data are protected under German law.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Existing GGL-licensed operators are currently bound by rigid rules, such as the €1 stake limit for slots and strict advertising bans. The introduction of prediction markets would require a significant update to German regulations. However, licensed casinos will likely follow the Lisbon discussions closely to see if these markets offer a viable expansion opportunity. For now, the German market remains focused on highly regulated sports betting and slots, while prediction markets remain an international trend that has yet to be formally integrated into the local legal landscape.