US Sports Betting Cooling Down: Sportradar Pivots to Prediction Markets

The US gambling market was long considered an endless gold mine. However, current data from analysis giant Sportradar paints a more nuanced picture. While the company is seeing strong overall growth, the core online sports betting (OSB) business in the United States appears to be losing momentum. Growth rates are leveling off, which industry observers attribute to increasing saturation in states that have already been regulated for some time. Despite this local cooling, the group can look back on a successful second quarter that significantly exceeded its own expectations for revenue and cash flow.

The company is benefiting primarily from broader diversification and the expansion of business areas outside of traditional betting markets. Prediction markets, in particular, are moving into focus as they are considered fresh potential for the future. At the same time, the development shows that the US market still has catching up to do compared to the European market regarding high-frequency betting formats. While in-play betting accounts for the majority of volume in Europe, this area is still in a development phase in the US, leaving room for new technologies and strategic acquisitions.

Numbers and facts

Sportradar significantly revised its revenue forecast for the current year upwards. The company now expects total revenue of approximately $1.7 billion. This represents a 20 percent increase compared to original plans. Cash flow is also developing positively, with an estimated growth of between 24 and 27 percent, exceeding projections. A key driver for these figures is the integration of IMG Arena, which is expected to release synergy effects amounting to around $29 million.

However, a shadow falls on the integrity of sports in North America. According to Sportradar's latest integrity report, the number of suspicious matches in North and Central America rose to 84 cases in 2025. This is almost a doubling compared to 2024. Worldwide, a total of 1,116 suspicious matches were identified across 12 different sports. Particularly concerning are cases in US professional sports, such as the arrest of NBA player Terry Rozier in October 2025 for allegedly manipulated prop bets or investigations into baseball pros from the Cleveland Guardians.

Background

The cooling in the online sports betting sector is explained by a stagnation of user trends in the US. Craig Felenstein, Sportradar's Chief Financial Officer, emphasized that trends in the US OSB segment have flatlined. Nevertheless, there were outliers, such as the FIFA World Cup final, which delivered record values for the company. CEO Carsten Koerl sees growth potential primarily in states where online sports betting is not yet legalized, such as Texas or California. There, event contracts and preparations for a future market opening are gaining importance.

A key pillar of the future strategy is so-called prediction markets. Koerl described this segment as very young and in an early stage of its life cycle. Cooperation with platforms like Kalshi is intended to bring long-term economic benefits here, provided the legal framework can be clarified. In-play betting currently accounts for only about 35-40 percent of the market in the US, while it stands at 70-80 percent in mature markets.

"The product is in a very early stage of its life cycle. It needs a bit of time." - Carsten Koerl, CEO at Sportradar

Why it matters for German players

For German betting customers, the situation remains stable as the German market is strictly regulated by the State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). While the US discusses cooling markets and new prediction markets, clear protection measures apply here. The monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros via the LUGAS system and the one-euro stake limit per spin for slots are fixed pillars of player protection. German players should rely exclusively on providers listed on the white list of the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL). These licenses guarantee that winnings are paid out securely and that odds are fair. The increase in match-fixing observed in the US underscores the importance of the GGL's strict monitoring mechanisms to protect the integrity of sporting competitions here as well.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Licensed operators in Germany must prepare for a continuous tightening of monitoring technologies. Sportradar already uses AI-supported systems like the Universal Fraud Detection System (UFDS AI) to find irregularities. In 2025, the number of suspicious matches identified by AI worldwide rose to 682 cases. German operators working with such data providers can benefit from this higher sensitivity to keep their platforms clean. The development shows that technological innovations not only improve the betting experience but are also essential for compliance with regulatory requirements. The focus on live betting, as forced in the US, is only partially feasible in Germany due to strict betting type restrictions, which protects the local market from volatile trends.