Messi Eyes Second World Cup? Betting Data Reveals Argentina's Favour

Football fever is rising, and the tension before the 2026 World Cup final is palpable. Data from betting provider Betano, operated by Kaizen Gaming, paints a clear picture: Lionel Messi and his Argentine team are the clear favourites among bettors. Argentina faces Spain, but punters' expectations are clearly focused on the South American superstar.

According to Betano's analysis, a staggering 82 percent of users believe Lionel Messi will lift the trophy again. This would further cement his position as one of the greatest footballers of all time. After a dramatic semi-final against England, which Argentina won with late goals from Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez, the team is ready for the big showdown.

Numbers and facts

Betano has provided detailed insights into its users' betting patterns. Of the players betting on the World Cup winner, 42 percent expect an Argentina victory within the regular 120 minutes. Another 19 percent see Spain as the winner, but only in extra time. Messi's dominance in punters' predictions is striking. In addition to his role as team leader, 40 percent of users predict him to score in the final. In direct comparison, Spain's young star Lamine Yamal is predicted to score by 18 percent, while Mikel Oyarzabal is backed by 12 percent of users to find the back of the net.

Individual awards are also in focus for bettors. For the Golden Ball, the award for the best player of the tournament, Messi is favoured by 27 percent of users. Lamine Yamal, who has been relatively quiet in the tournament so far, is the clear favourite for the best young player award with 54 percent of the votes, underlining his enormous potential. Evidence is mounting that Messi has maintained his impressive form of recent years in this tournament as well. Perry Miller Carpenter of Yahoo Sports reports on Messi's performance: "A thunderous equalizer against Egypt made it 8 goals in 5 games for the Barcelona legend."

Background

The 2026 final follows in big footsteps. The 2022 final, which Argentina won against France on penalties after a spectacular 3-3 draw after extra time, is considered one of the best football matches of all time. The narrative between Messi and Yamal, often referred to as his "apprentice," shapes the stories ahead of the final. Photos of the two from a UNICEF photoshoot more than 18 years ago, when Yamal was just six months old, are circulating on social media and adding to the fascination. Chris Rogers, spokesperson for Oddschecker, emphasizes the significance of the tournament for Messi: "As the little magician goes in search of consecutive World Cups with Argentina, his Ballon d'Or odds have been sensationally slashed from +5500 (pre-tournament) to +400." This development proves his outstanding influence on the pitch.

Why it matters for German players

For German players who like to try their luck online, such international sporting events are naturally of great interest. However, it is essential to observe the strict rules of the German Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). This treaty has fundamentally changed the landscape of online gambling in Germany. Anyone wishing to legally bet or use casino games should only do so with providers listed on the whitelist of the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL). These providers are subject to strict requirements for player protection and addiction prevention.

The GlüStV 2021 mandates binding limits, such as the 1 euro per spin stake limit on online slot machines or a monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros, monitored across systems by LUGAS (National Gambling Supervision System). These measures are intended to ensure that gambling remains a recreational activity and does not lead to financial problems. Betting on the World Cup is also possible with GGL-licensed providers, but always within these strict guidelines. Players should therefore always check whether a provider has a valid German license to avoid legal consequences and the loss of player protection.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For online casinos and betting providers with a German GGL license, the sustained interest in major events such as the FIFA World Cup represents an important source of revenue. However, they must ensure that all betting offers comply with the requirements of the GlüStV 2021. This includes not only the stake and deposit limits already mentioned but also transparent information on player protection and addiction prevention. The German rules must also be observed for international leagues and championships offered for betting by these providers.

It is a balancing act between the attractiveness of sports betting and compliance with strict regulatory requirements. GGL-licensed casinos, for example, are not allowed to use aggressive advertising measures that specifically target minors or vulnerable players. Bonus offers are also subject to clear restrictions. The clear message from the GGL is to maintain a safe and responsible gaming environment. Even though World Cup fever is high, player protection in Germany comes first.

"Lionel Messi has dazzled for Argentina at the World Cup. A thunderous equalizer against Egypt made it 8 goals in 5 games for the Barcelona legend. Messi ranks the highest on the WhoScored player index this season with an 8.76 rating. As the little magician goes in search of consecutive World Cups with Argentina, his Ballon d'Or odds have been sensationally slashed from +5500 (pre-tournament) to +400." - Chris Rogers, Spokesperson at Oddschecker