GGL warns against illegal social betting and risky prediction markets

The Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) is sharpening its tone regarding a growing internet trend. So-called social betting and prediction markets, which often masquerade as modern financial products, are now officially in the sights of the German regulator. The authority has clarified that these forms of betting cannot receive a permit in Germany. Consequently, anyone using such platforms from Germany is acting illegally. This is not a legal gray area, but a clear violation of the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021.

The professional design of these platforms is particularly deceptive for many consumers. Sites like Polymarket or Kalshi often appear like reputable stock exchange platforms for trading contracts. However, the GGL emphasizes that the design or the use of modern terms like event contracts changes nothing regarding the legal classification. If a bet is placed on the outcome of an event and participation from Germany is possible, German law applies. The authority has therefore set up a new FAQ section to take preventive action against these offers and to inform the public about the impending consequences.

Numbers and facts

Trading volume on international prediction markets reached new record levels in 2026. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket record monthly turnovers in the billions. Individual contracts often cost between 0 and 1 US dollar, with the price reflecting the percentage probability of an event. A contract value of 0.40 dollars corresponds to a probability of occurrence of 40 percent. Despite this mathematical appearance, the GGL maintains its hard line. It clarifies that social betting involving political elections, economic data such as inflation rates, or other public events is strictly prohibited in Germany.

"Social betting is not eligible for a permit in Germany. Anyone participating in such bets from Germany is therefore not moving in a legal gray area but may be liable to prosecution." - Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL), regulatory body

Background

The conflict over prediction markets is not a purely German phenomenon. In Spain, platforms like Polymarket have already been blocked due to ongoing gambling reviews. While Gibraltar has introduced its own regulatory framework for such event contracts to create a legal basis, the German position remains restrictive. The GGL sees a threat to market channeling in these bets. If illegal providers can offer products without player protection and without deposit limits, the legal market is undermined. Prediction markets are often based on users trading directly against each other, which distinguishes them from classic bookmaker bets. Nevertheless, the element of gambling remains at the forefront, as the outcome of the event is uncertain.

Why it matters for German players

For players in Germany, the situation is precarious. Anyone who registers with a provider without a GGL license to bet on political elections or economic trends is violating the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021. This can lead to criminal investigations. Furthermore, these illegal platforms do not feature protection mechanisms such as the monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros or the connection to the central LUGAS block system. There is no guarantee for the payout of winnings. The GGL explicitly warns that an English-language interface or a company headquarters abroad does not protect against German law. Those who want to play safely must strictly stick to providers on the official GGL whitelist that exclusively offer permitted sports betting or casino games.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Legal providers with a GGL license have to fear competition from these shadow markets. While licensed casinos must adhere to strict rules for player protection and a stake limit of 1 euro per spin for slots, prediction markets often operate completely unregulated. This leads to an imbalance in competition. The GGL emphasizes that combating the black market is a top priority to steer players into the safe harbor of licensed offerings. Professional media reporting should take place according to the GGL, but must never create the appearance of a recommendation for use, so as not to unintentionally advertise illegal content.