Sportradar Bullish on Prediction Markets Despite US Regulatory Hurdles

The landscape of sports data and wagering is undergoing a significant transformation that reaches far beyond traditional betting. Sportradar, a global leader in sports technology, is positioning itself at the forefront of the emerging prediction market sector. During a recent Q2 earnings call, CEO Carsten Koerl emphasized that this vertical is a natural extension of the company's existing capabilities. By providing real-time data to exchanges and brokers, Sportradar aims to increase its total addressable market in the United States and attract new demographics of players interested in event-based trading.

However, this expansion is not without its challenges. While the strategic value is clear, the financial realization has been deferred. Regulatory ambiguities in the U.S. and slower-than-expected contract closures with sports leagues mean that the bulk of the revenue benefits will likely arrive in 2027 and beyond. Despite these hurdles, management remains optimistic, citing the unique value proposition of their high-speed data feeds. The focus is shifting from simple outcomes to millisecond-level data that powers complex trading ecosystems.

Numbers and facts

Financial performance in the second quarter already shows the influence of this new sector. Revenue from Sportradar's marketing and media services segment grew by 16%, driven by increased spending from prediction market participants. The Sports Content, Technology & Services division reported revenues of €64 million, representing a 9% year-over-year increase. For the full fiscal year 2026, CFO Craig Felenstein expects total revenue to reach between €1.518 billion and €1.533 billion, supported by the accelerating growth of this new vertical.

The partnership with Kalshi, announced in June, is a cornerstone of this strategy. Sportradar provides real-time data for trade settlement and integrity services across major leagues including the MLB, NHL, and UFC. The commercial structure of these deals includes both fixed fees and variable components, allowing Sportradar to scale its earnings as the markets grow in volume. Similarly, a deal with Polymarket provides TDI (Tennis Data Innovations) data for approximately 20,000 matches per season, offering users live streaming and exclusive event contracts.

“With our premium content, global scale and unmatched product portfolio and capabilities, predictions market is a natural adjacency. It expands the US TAM by opening up new states, attracting new players and increasing engagement with sports.” - Carsten Koerl, CEO of Sportradar

Background

Prediction markets operate differently than traditional sportsbooks, functioning more like financial exchanges where users trade contracts based on the outcome of future events. In this environment, data latency is the most critical factor. Sportradar utilizes ultra-low-latency feeds and advanced modeling, such as ball-tracking in tennis reported within milliseconds, to ensure market efficiency. This technology allows market makers and brokers to manage risk and provide liquidity for high-frequency event contracts.

The sector is currently at the center of a regulatory tug-of-war in the U.S. While the CFTC has recently shown a more permissive stance toward these markets, several states remain opposed. New York Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James filed a massive lawsuit against Kalshi, seeking $36 billion in damages. Furthermore, Sportradar has had to defend its reputation against short-seller allegations suggesting involvement in grey markets. Koerl countered these claims by highlighting a rigorous compliance framework designed to protect the integrity of their data products.

Why it matters for German players

For players in Germany, the regulatory environment remains strictly governed by the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). While the U.S. explores the frontiers of prediction markets, German residents must adhere to localized safety standards. Participation in online gambling is only legal through operators listed on the official GGL Whitelist. These licensed sites enforce the mandatory €1,000 monthly deposit limit and the €1 stake limit for virtual slots. These measures are designed to prevent addiction and ensure financial transparency, contrasting with the more volatile nature of unregulated foreign markets.

Prediction markets as seen in the U.S. are currently not a standard part of the licensed German gambling landscape. German players should avoid MGA or Curacao-licensed platforms that might offer such event-based trading without local oversight. The GGL ensures that every bet placed is monitored for fairness and that player funds are protected by German law. As Sportradar brings more integrity services to the market, the hope is that high-quality data will continue to improve the safety and accuracy of licensed betting products within Germany.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

The technological advancements pursued by Sportradar could eventually benefit GGL-licensed operators by providing more robust data for live betting products. If prediction markets gain legal traction globally, elements of these exchange-style mechanics might be integrated into the German market, provided they meet the strict criteria for player protection and social responsibility. For now, the primary takeaway for German operators and players is the continued importance of using data-driven integrity tools to combat fraud and ensure a fair gaming environment under the supervision of the GGL.