Prediction Markets Surge: Platform Kalshi Nears Trillion-Dollar Forecasts

The world of betting is currently undergoing a radical transformation, and it is not just due to traditional bookmakers. So-called prediction markets, where users trade on the outcome of events such as elections, financial developments, or sporting events, are experiencing an unprecedented boom. Especially in the US, this topic is hotly debated because these platforms often operate as federally regulated exchanges, giving them a completely different legal basis than traditional gambling. A new analytical tool called Ticker Tracker is now showing in detail for the first time how massive these figures really are. While the general public is still talking about football results, billions of dollars are already being moved on platforms like Kalshi.

Ticker Tracker founder Eric Ramsey has been observing the scene for a long time. He notes that interest in these markets has now eclipsed traditional sports betting discussions. The tool aggregates data that platforms must provide via APIs. As federally regulated exchanges, operators like Kalshi are required to publish their daily trading volumes. This ensures a level of transparency that is often missing in the secretive world of online casinos. The sheer sums are breathtaking, but one must look closely to avoid misinterpreting the numbers.

Numbers and facts

Especially during the last World Cup, prices on prediction markets skyrocketed. The platform Kalshi reached a daily trading volume of over $2 billion in July. Over the entire tournament, the volume totaled more than $33 billion. These are figures that silence even the biggest skeptics. According to data from July 23, single-sport markets accounted for about $531 million of the daily volume of $1.3 billion. If one includes so-called exotics, which are often parlay bets in sports, around 75 percent of all trading was on sports. Crypto accounted for about 16 percent, while the rest was attributed to politics and economics.

However, there is an important distinction regarding volume. Ticker Tracker displays the notional volume. This is the total face value of the contracts. If a user buys a contract that pays $1 upon success, that dollar is counted as volume, even if the user may have only paid 27 cents for it. Eric Ramsey therefore warns against misconceptions when interpreting these billion-dollar figures.

"When we see a number like $40 billion traded on Kalshi this month, that doesn’t really mean there was $40 billion changing hands over the course of the month. To the best of my ability, I’ve tried to keep these as two separate things. So, prediction market volume is just a different thing than sports betting volume." - Eric Ramsey, Founder of Ticker Tracker

Background

Future forecasts for this sector remain gargantuan. A report from Macquarie Equity Research suggests that taker volume, which represents the actual money risked by users, could grow from the current $22 billion to $1.5 trillion by 2030. Interestingly, a shift in topics is expected. While sports will account for about 88% of the volume in 2025, this share is expected to decline to 47% by 2030. Analysts expect categories like economics, politics, finance, and even weather to gain massive significance. Non-sports taker volume could explode from $1.3 billion in 2025 to $274 billion by 2030, according to Macquarie.

Yet, there is resistance. In the US, the legal situation is complex. States like Nevada and Michigan have already banned access to Kalshi. In Washington state, a judge recently ruled the platform to be illegal. These legal disputes could slow growth, but the trend seems unstoppable. Meanwhile, Ramsey plans to integrate data from Polymarket and Crypto.com into his tool to provide an even more complete picture of the market.

Why it matters for German players

For bettors in Germany, such US platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket are currently not legal alternatives. The German State Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) sets extremely narrow limits on what is permitted. Betting on political events or the weather is strictly forbidden in Germany. Anyone wishing to play legally in this country must stick to the whitelist of the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL). Only operators listed there are subject to strict rules. This includes the monthly deposit limit of 1,000 euros across all providers, monitored by the LUGAS system.

The 1 euro stake limit per round for virtual slots is also a core component of German player protection. Prediction markets, which are booming in the US, function more like a stock exchange and do not fit into the current German regulatory model. German players should be careful if they encounter international platforms without a GGL license. These often offer higher odds or more exotic markets but provide no legal certainty for the customer regarding payouts. In Germany, the focus remains on protection against gambling addiction and channeling into the legal market, which excludes such speculative prediction exchanges for now.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For local providers with a GGL license, the global boom in prediction markets primarily means competition for the attention of a young, tech-savvy target group. While German online casinos are heavily regulated by restrictive advertising rules and cooling-off periods, international trends are increasingly entering the consciousness of users. The GGL will have to observe whether strict German rules lead players to migrate to the black market or unregulated crypto exchanges to bet on things that are prohibited here.

The trend toward more data and transparency, as exemplified by Ticker Tracker, could also serve as a model for the legal market. Greater transparency in payout percentages and market trends could strengthen player trust in licensed GGL providers. As long as the legal hurdles for non-sports event betting remain so high in Germany, licensed providers will not be able to exploit part of their potential. The market remains in motion, but in Germany, safety comes before speed.