Quebec Election: Online Gambling and Prediction Markets Take Center Stage

The political atmosphere in the Canadian province of Quebec is intensifying as the October 5 election date approaches. Amidst traditional campaign topics such as education and housing shortages, online gambling has surprisingly emerged as a central issue of debate. The discussion primarily revolves around whether the long-standing monopoly of state-owned Loto-Quebec should be dismantled in favor of private operators such as DraftKings or FanDuel. This is not just about entertainment, but about significant economic interests and the protection of citizens in a digitalized world.

Until now, Quebec, like many other provinces outside of Ontario and Alberta, has followed a very conservative path. Only a single state entity was allowed to offer legal online betting. However, pressure is mounting. The Quebec Online Gaming Coalition, an association of major industry players, has been fighting for modernization for years. The fact that opposition parties are now picking up the topic signals a possible paradigm shift in Canada's second-most populous province. Particularly interesting is the rare consensus between the Liberals and the sovereignist Parti Quebecois (PQ), who are usually poles apart politically.

Numbers and facts

The economic arguments for market opening are impressive. The Quebec Online Gaming Coalition estimates that an open, regulated market could generate more than $300 million in additional annual tax revenue. A 2025 report by research firm Blask underscores the need for reform: according to this estimate, Loto-Quebec currently captures only about 17 percent of the total online gambling market in the province. The remainder flows to gray markets or offshore providers. In contrast, a study by the University of Lethbridge reported a channelization rate of 79.4 percent for 2025. This contradiction illustrates how heated the debate over actual market shares has become.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Quebecois, sees the potential revenue as a major opportunity for social infrastructure. He responded positively to the Liberal proposals to open the market and subject private platforms to strict rules. The Liberals, under Charles Milliard, plan to expand the mandate of the Regie des alcools, des courses et des jeux (RACJ) so that this authority can license and oversee all online platforms.

"It’s an excellent idea that might go unnoticed because it’s a bit unconventional, but imagine if we took that $300 million and invested it in addressing homelessness, feeding hungry school children, or tackling learning disabilities – we could make an immediate impact." - Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Leader of the Parti Quebecois

Background

Another bone of contention in the campaign is so-called prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcome of events, such as election results or interest rate decisions. In Quebec, these markets currently exist in a regulatory gray area. Financial regulators across Canada recently spoke out against authorizing sports-related event contracts, but the reality is different. Many citizens use VPNs or offshore sites to participate anyway. The Liberals are now calling for a joint mandate for financial and gambling watchdogs to close this loophole.

Ariane Gauthier, spokesperson for the Quebec Online Gaming Coalition, emphasized in talks with journalists that the issue is finally gaining traction. The coalition sees the election as an opportunity to create a broad consensus for clear rules that apply equally to state and private companies. This also involves gambling addiction prevention. One proposal involves creating an independent organization to support those affected, funded directly by the industry rather than by taxpayers.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, the situation in Quebec offers an interesting parallel to their own circumstances. In Germany, the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021) is the decisive framework pursuing similar goals to the reform proposals in Quebec. The strict separation between legal offers on the GGL whitelist and the black market is the central theme here as well. While Quebec is still discussing opening up, Germany has already taken this step, albeit under very strict conditions. These include a deposit limit of 1,000 euros per month across all providers and a stake limit of 1 euro per spin on virtual slot machines.

Players in Germany must register via LUGAS (Cross-State Gambling Supervision System), which ensures player protection but also limits privacy. The debate in Quebec about tax revenue mirrors the German discussion about taxing gambling stakes. Anyone in Germany playing with an unlicensed provider enters a state of legal uncertainty and loses the protection provided by the Joint Gambling Authority of the States (GGL). German players should therefore always check whether a provider holds the necessary permit to guarantee legally secure payouts and fair gaming conditions.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

German casinos with a GGL license can learn from developments in Canada that regulation and competition must go hand in hand to effectively combat the black market. The $300 million figure mentioned in Quebec demonstrates the economic power inherent in a well-regulated market. For licensed operators in Germany, this means that transparency and a focus on player protection are long-term competitive advantages. If Quebec adopts the Ontario model, global players like DraftKings will further align their standards, increasing international pressure on unregulated markets.