US iGaming Stocks Surge Ahead of Sports Betting Rivals

The US online gambling industry is currently experiencing a remarkable development. Analysts at Macquarie have found that iGaming-focused companies significantly outperformed their sports betting rivals in the first quarter of 2026. A clear trend towards casino games and slots is emerging, while the sports betting segment continues to face challenges.

The results for the first three months of 2026 were broadly positive across the industry. Online gambling operators achieved an average EBITDA beat of 9 percent compared to expectations. However, this general positive development concealed a deep division in the market: iGaming leaders showed outstanding performance, while sports betting-oriented companies, although recording modest successes, could barely raise their full-year estimates. In my personal assessment, this is where the future of the industry lies. Such market dynamics can shift quickly.

Numbers and facts

Rush Street Interactive (RSI), a pure iGaming provider, led the pack with a substantial 25 percent EBITDA beat. Additionally, full-year estimates were revised upwards by 9 percent. Super Group still achieved a 5 percent beat and a 1 percent revision rate. This stands in stark contrast to sports betting heavyweights DraftKings and Flutter. Although they also recorded slight gains, their 2026 EBITDA forecasts were revised downwards by 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively. This highlights how dynamic these markets can be and how quickly trends change. Nevertheless, developments in the US remain significant for the global market.

Macquarie's analysts attribute this divergence to stronger structural growth and greater margin visibility among iGaming operators. Sports betting, on the other hand, is more susceptible to fluctuations caused by hold rate normalization and targeted reinvestment. Sportradar shares, for instance, fell by around 23 percent despite only a 1 percent estimate reduction. This occurred after short-seller reports alleged that the company generates a significant portion of its revenue from unlicensed operators. I wonder how much influence short sellers have here. RSI, however, rose by about 22 percent, accompanied by 9 percent EBITDA adjustments.

Also noteworthy is the role of prediction markets, which are gaining traction in the US. Although they contributed to sharp share price drops for two leading sportsbook operators, Macquarie analysts view the competitive threat as limited. Chad Beynon, Senior Gaming, Lodging & Theatres Analyst at Macquarie, noted already in June 2026 regarding the World Cup:

“Since we estimate that the US only represents ~5% of legal global betting volume during the World Cup, even if we assumed 40% growth in the US, it would be quite insignificant.”

He also added that prediction markets primarily attract users in states without legal online sports betting. Existing customers would likely stick with their usual sports betting apps.

Background

The American gambling market has been in constant flux since the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018. Many states have since legalized sports betting, and iGaming is also gaining increasing importance. The varied regulation at the state level leads to a patchwork of opportunities for operators and players. This shapes companies' strategies and analysts' evaluations. The latest figures show that the initial enthusiasm for sports betting has somewhat subsided. I suspect that players are now discovering the long-term entertainment of casino games and slots.

Prediction markets are a growing trend, seen by some as a multi-billion dollar industry. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket dominate this sector. Laila Mintas, Founder & CEO of 365Prediction, noted that while transformative industries have early pioneers, not necessarily the first providers remain the dominant players:

“Every transformational industry has had early pioneers, but history consistently shows that today’s leaders are not necessarily tomorrow’s dominant companies.” - Laila Mintas, Founder & CEO of 365Prediction

She emphasized that success lies in creating better products and superior user experiences. This reminds me of many areas of digital progress. I am curious to see which providers will ultimately prevail here.

Why it matters for German players

For German players, these developments in the USA have no direct impact on legislation. Gambling regulation in Germany is governed by the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021). This has created clear rules for online gambling in Germany. German players must adhere to the requirements of the Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL), which ensures that only licensed providers operate on the market. I recommend German players to exclusively play at casinos on the GGL whitelist. The GGL license guarantees compliance with strict player protection standards. These include the bet limit of 1 Euro per spin on slot machines and the monthly deposit limit of 1,000 Euros via the LUGAS system. These measures are intended to promote responsible gaming and prevent gambling addiction.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

For GGL-licensed casinos in Germany, US trends confirm the focus on iGaming. Although the markets are regulatory different, demand for online casino games appears to be robust worldwide. German licensing requirements, particularly the 1 Euro per spin limit and the 1,000 Euro deposit limit, aim to minimize risks but also restrict the revenue potential of providers. Nevertheless, the success of iGaming companies in the USA shows that an attractive offering in slots and table games can be crucial. German casinos that adhere to strict rules while offering an appealing, safe gaming experience will continue to succeed. The quality of the offering and exemplary player protection are key here, just as the GGL demands. That, in my opinion, is the path to long-term success.