Dr. Laila Mintas Plans 365Prediction: Event Contracts as a Trillion-Dollar Market

Dr. Laila Mintas, a seasoned sports business executive and former lobbyist, is preparing the launch of her new venture, 365Prediction. The company aims to capitalize on the growing US prediction market, which Mintas argues is a separate category from traditional sports betting. Following the 2018 repeal of PASPA, she believes the US gambling industry established a flawed foundation based on state-by-state regulation. Her new platform seeks to operate under a federal framework, providing more transparency and integrity for the end user.

Scheduled for a launch in early 2027, 365Prediction is currently navigating the final stages of the CFTC approval process. The platform is designed as an exchange where participants trade contracts on the outcome of various events. This structural difference is key to Mintas's vision, as it eliminates the house's role in setting odds and taking the opposite side of a wager. By acting as a neutral venue, the platform avoids the inherent conflicts of interest found in traditional bookmaking.

Numbers and facts

The financial scale of the prediction market is substantial. During the World Cup, daily volumes on existing platforms like Kalshi exceeded $2 billion. Mintas cites market size estimates reaching $1 trillion, suggesting there is enough room for multiple major players. 365Prediction has applied for licensure as both a Designated Contract Maker (DCM) and a Designated Clearing Organization (DCO). This vertical structure allows the company to settle contracts internally without relying on third-party clearing houses.

"The difference is structural. It’s not semantic. In sports betting, you’re playing against the house; the book sets the odds, takes the other side of the wager, and profits when you lose. There’s an inherent conflict of interest baked into the model." - Dr. Laila Mintas, Founder and CEO of 365Prediction

The company has secured a partnership with FiscalNote, a leader in policy and political data, to bolster its offerings in political markets. While some competitors have explicitly ruled out entering the casino gaming space, Mintas remains open to the possibility. She states that if casino games fall under the asset class allowed by the CFTC in the future, 365Prediction would not exclude them, emphasizing the company's commitment to innovation and market disruption.

Background

Laila Mintas brings significant experience and a history of high-stakes legal battles to her new role. Her tenure as CEO of PlayUp in the US ended in 2021 amidst the collapse of a $450 million acquisition deal by FTX. Global CEO Daniel Simic sued Mintas for allegedly sabotaging the deal, while she countersued for $100 million in damages. Last year, a judge dismissed PlayUp's claims against her, and a trial for her remaining claims is expected next year. Mintas draws on these experiences to advocate for a federal model, arguing that the current patchwork of state laws leaves approximately 70% of betting activity in the unregulated offshore market.

Why it matters for German players

For German residents, the emergence of US-based prediction markets like 365Prediction carries significant regulatory warnings. Under the Interstate Treaty on Gambling 2021 (GlüStV 2021), the German market is strictly regulated by the GGL. Prediction markets that involve betting on politics or non-sporting events are generally prohibited in Germany. Furthermore, these US platforms do not hold German licenses, meaning they are not listed on the official whitelist. Playing on such platforms would bypass critical player protections like the €1,000 monthly deposit limit and the LUGAS monitoring system. German players are advised to stick to GGL-licensed providers to ensure legal safety and access to the OASIS ban system.

What it means for GGL-licensed casinos

Licensed operators in Germany should view the rise of event contracts as an example of how the global gaming landscape is evolving through financial instruments. However, the strict distinction between financial products and gambling in German law makes it unlikely that such models will be approved for local licensed operators in the near future. While Mintas criticizes the US state-by-state model for encouraging offshore activity, German regulators are focused on channeling players toward a limited but safe selection of games. The Dutch authority's recent warnings about promotional games of chance also highlight a trend of increased scrutiny on any activity that blurs the lines of traditional gambling, suggesting that the regulatory environment in Europe will remain much more restrictive than the proposed US federal model for event contracts.