Polymarket Ta Samu Kuɗi Har Dalar Biliyan Ɗaya A Tsakiyar Yaƙin Shari'a A Amurka

Duniyar kasuwannin hasashe yanzu haka tana fuskantar zinari mara misaltuwa, wanda kuma ke rufe da hadarin shari'a.

Polymarket, wanda ya samu karancin kudin shiga a farkon 2026, ya koma babban kamfani da kudin shiga dalar biliyan daya a cikin watanni shida kacal. Wannan ci gaba ya samo asali ne daga cire sunayen masu jira a Amurka a watan Mayu 2026 da kuma karuwar kudin da ake biya wanda kusan babu shi kafin Janairu 2026. Yayin da masu zuba jari ke jere don kimanta kamfanin akan sama da dala biliyan 20, ana samun babbar turjiya a wani fanni daban.

Akwai jahohin Amurka 20 da ke cikin shari'a tare da dandamali kamar Polymarket da kuma mai gaba da ita Kalshi. Zargin da ake yi ya yi tsanani: kwangilolin da ake bayarwa na abubuwan wasanni ana daukarsu a matsayin caca ba bisa ka'ida ba a karkashin dokar jihar. Abin takaici shi ne wasikar da manyan lauyoyi 44 na jahohi suka sanya wa hannu. Suna hana hukumomin tarayya tilo yin alaka kuma suna neman hakkin gudanar da wadannan dandamali a karkashin dokokin gidan caca na gida. Wannan yana kalubalantar dukkan tsarin kasuwanci, wanda ya zuwa yanzu ya dogara ne akan tsarin gudanarwa na tsakiya a matsayin samfurin kudi ta Hukumar Cinikayyar Kayayyaki ta Amurka (CFTC).

Lambobi da kididdiga

Sakamakon tattalin arziki yana da ban mamaki. A watan Oktoba 2025, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ta zuba dalar biliyan 2 a Polymarket, wanda a lokacin ya nuna kimar dala biliyan 9. A watan Maris 2026, wannan kimar ta riga ta karu zuwa dala biliyan 15. A halin yanzu, rahotanni na nuna cewa kamfanin na tattaunawa kan wani zagaye na samun dala biliyan 1 a kimar da ya wuce dala biliyan 20. An kimanta mai gaba da ita Kalshi a dala biliyan 22 a watan Mayu kuma tana neman kimar dala biliyan 40.

Sabani, kimanin da Hukumar Haraji ta bayar na nuna cewa jahohi na rasa kusan dalar biliyan 2 a cikin haraji na shekara-shekara saboda rashin tsarin gudanar da caca. Don inganta kasuwar, Polymarket ta samu hadin gwiwa ta musamman. An kimanta yarjejeniya da Kungiyar Kwallon Kafa ta Major League (MLB) akan dala miliyan 150 zuwa miliyan 300 sama da shekaru uku. Bugu da kari, dandamalin ya samu hakkin wasannin tennis na ATP 20,000 a kowane kakar. Sportradar ma yana cikinsu a matsayin mai samar da bayanai, yanzu yana rufe wasanni 300,000 a kowace shekara a sama da kungiyoyi 20, ciki har da Bundesliga ta Jamus.

Tarihi

Rikicin ya kai kololuwar farko a ranar 28 ga Agusta, 2026. Kwamitin alkalin kotun daukaka kara ta Ninth Circuit mai mambobi uku ya yanke hukunci gaba daya cewa jahohi na iya gudanar da kasuwannin hasashe a matsayin caca. Alkalai, wadanda duk aka nada su a lokacin gwamnatin Trump, sun bayyana a fili cewa abin da ke cikin kwangilolin abubuwan wasanni shi ne caca ta wasanni. Ta hanyar yin haka, sun saba da wani hukunci na farko daga Kotun Koli ta Uku, wanda ya sanya batun Kotun Koli kusan tabbas.

A halin yanzu kuma, Hukumar CFTC, karkashin jagorancin Michael Selig, na kokarin kare ikon ta kadai. Selig ya bayyana kasuwannin hasashen a matsayin na gaba da crypto kuma ya jaddada bukatar tsarin tarayya. Hukumar ta riga ta gurfanar da jihohi tara don hana tsoma bakinsu. A lokaci guda kuma, ana kara matsin lamba kan mutuncin kasuwa.

"Abubuwan da ke cikin kwangilolin wasanni da ake bayarwa a musayar Kalshi na zama caca ta wasanni." - Hukuncin Hukumar Daukaka Kara ta Circuit ta Tara, Agusta 28, 2026

Binciken Bloomberg ya nuna cewa a rabin farko na shekarar 2026 kadai, kimanin dala miliyan 200 a cikin ciniki a Polymarket ya nuna alamun cinikayya ta sirri. Wannan ya shafi musamman cinikin siyasa kan abubuwan da suka faru a Iran ko Venezuela. Polymarket ta mayar da martani ta hanyar mika adireshin walat guda 100 ga hukumomin tilasta bin doka.

Me yasa hakan ke da mahimmanci ga 'yan wasan Jamus

Ga 'yan wasan Jamus, yanayin kasuwancin hasashen kamar Polymarket yana da matukar rikitarwa. A Jamus, caca tana ƙarƙashin Yarjejeniya ta Jiha kan Caca 2021 (GlüStV 2021). Dandalin da ke ba da fare kan abubuwan wasanni ko wasu abubuwan da za su faru a nan gaba suna buƙatar lasisi daga Hukumar Hadin Gwiwar Caca ta Jihohi (GGL). A halin yanzu, irin waɗannan kasuwancin hasashen da ke dogara da crypto ba a samu suke a cikin jerin sunayen hukuma na GGL ba. Wannan yana nufin cewa shiga irin waɗannan kasuwanni daga Jamus ana iya rarraba su ta doka a matsayin shiga cikin caca ba bisa ka'ida ba.

Bugu da ƙari, waɗannan dandamali ba su da matakan kare 'yan wasan Jamus. Babu iyaka na ajiya na 1,000 Yuro a kowane wata ta hanyar tsarin LUGAS kuma babu haɗin kai zuwa jerin hana OASIS. Iyakar fare na Yuro ɗaya ga kowane juyawa ga ramummuka ko irin waɗannan ƙuntatawa ba su wanzu a can ba. Tun da Polymarket ke bayar da kwangiloli waɗanda wani lokaci suke ɗorewa mintuna biyar kawai, yuwuwar jaraba tana iya kwatanta da wasannin gidan caca na yau da kullun, wanda ke damuwa ga masu tsara dokokin Jamus.

Abin da ke nufi ga gidajen caca masu lasisin GGL

masu gudanar da caca a Jamus masu lasisi suna ganin waɗannan dandamali a matsayin gasa mara adalci. Yayin da gidajen caca na GGL dole ne su biya haraji mai yawa kuma su cika buƙatun kare ƴan wasa masu tsauri, wuraren hasashen galibi suna aiki a cikin baƙar fata ta doka ba tare da waɗannan nauyin kuɗi ba. Shari'ar da ke Amurka ta nuna cewa masana'antar caca da aka kafa tana yin tasiri sosai don sanya waɗannan masu fafatawa sababbi su yi laifi. masu samar da kayayyaki na Jamus na iya nuna cewa gidajen caca da ke cikin jerin fararen fata kawai ke ba da tabbacin tsaro da kuma bin doka. Idan yanayin zuwa wuraren hasashen ya ci gaba a Turai, GGL zai yi tsauri kamar yadda lauyoyin gwamnatin Amurka suke don kare kasuwar da aka tsara.